Mortgage Giant Predicts Strong Housing Recovery in 2010

December 22, 2009

Housing activity is expected to be brisk in the New Year according to Fannie Mae’s recently released December Housing Forecast.

The mortgage giant predicts that home sales and new residential construction will boast double digit gains in 2010 compared to a disappointing performance in 2009. According to the forecast, existing home sales are expected to rise by 10 percent next year, compared to an estimated 3.1 percent gain this year, while new home sales are projected to rise by 26 percent in 2010 compared to an estimated 19 percent drop in sales this year. Similarly, new residential construction is expected to increase 35 percent in the New Year compared with a 38 percent drop in starts in 2009.

Fannie Mae’s upbeat forecast for the nation’s housing sector is consistent with the positive way housing activity ended this past year. The housing sector scored a trifecta in October-home sales were up; home inventories were down; and home values were stabilizing. Existing home sales surged10.1 percent to 6.1 million annualized units in October compared to a month earlier, while new home sales gained 6.2 percent to 433,000 in October, representing the strongest pace since the fall of last year. More encouraging was that the months’ supply for existing homes posted a cyclical low of 7 months in October, while the months’ supply for new homes registered a cyclical low of 6.7 months.

The median price for existing homes fell 7.1 percent in October compared to October 2008, but it was the second consecutive month where the decline was in single digits. More heartening was the meager 1 percent decline in the median home price in October compared to September. The median price for new homes fell only 0.5 percent in October from a year earlier.

According to its 2010 forecast, Fannie Mae expects home values to remain relatively weak next year, predicting a 0.2 percent drop based on the Federal Housing Finance Association (FHFA) home price index, compared to a meager 0.5 percent drop in the FHFA home price index this past year.

Although the housing sector is expected to rebound sharply in sales and housing starts in 2010, the mortgage giant predicted bad news for mortgage lenders, estimating that mortgage originations would decrease 33 percent by the end of next year. The company notes that the primary reason for a large drop off in the origination business is attributed to a projected 52 percent plunge in refinancing transactions compared to this past year, due to rising mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are expected to average 5.14 percent in 2010, compared to an estimated average of 5.03 percent this past year.

There remain serious risks in predicting a successful housing market recovery. Foreclosures are expected to mount over the next year or two because of rate resets on option ARM and interest only mortgage loans. Foreclosures add to housing inventories, which could slow the recovery. In addition, the homebuyer tax credit which is due to expire at the end of April, has been effective in enticing households to purchase homes during the past several months. If Congress does not extend the credit (again), the momentum in home sales could stall sometime next year.

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NAR Survey Shows First-Time Home Buyers Set Record in Past Year

December 10, 2009

First-time home buyers reached the highest market share on record during the past year, according to the latest consumer survey of home buyers and sellers. The study was released here today at the 2009 REALTORS® Conference & Expo.

The 2009 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers is the latest in a series of large national NAR surveys evaluating demographics, preferences, marketing and experiences of recent home buyers and sellers. Among national surveys, NAR’s Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers is unprecedented in size and scope.

Paul Bishop, NAR vice president of research, said several factors have been at play. “Tax incentives, record high affordability conditions and a pent-up demand brought a record share of first-time home buyers into the market,” he said. “These buyers are critical to housing and a general economic recovery because the market always heals from the bottom up – they absorb inventory, free existing owners to make a trade and stimulate related goods and services.”
The number of first-time home buyers rose to 47 percent of all home sales from 41 percent of transactions in last year’s study, and was the highest on record dating back to 1981. The previous high was 44 percent in 1991. “It’s interesting to note the last cyclical peak of first-time home buyers was during the last noteworthy economic downturn, with first-time buyers starting the chain reaction that led the nation out of recession,” Bishop said.

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Forecast Hopeful with First-Time Home Buyers Leading the Way

December 10, 2009

(Boise Idaho) Aided by the home buyer tax credit, the outlook for housing and the economy appears headed for a sustainable recovery, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the projections are enhanced by a tax credit expansion to more home buyers through the middle of 2010. “Given the success of the first-time buyer tax credit to date, and the need for qualified buyers to continue to absorb inventory that will include additional foreclosures over the coming year, we are hopeful about the impact of the expanded tax credit because it will stabilize home prices,” he said. “In fact, the credit is working better than first projected – it now looks like we’ll have 2.3 to 2.4 million first-time buyers this year.”
A large consumer study being released later today, the 2009 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, shows first-time buyers accounted for a record 47 percent share of home sales over the past year, up from 41 percent in the 2008 survey. The share has risen steadily since a cyclical low of 36 percent in 2006.
Existing-home sales are expected to total 5.01 million in 2009, a gain of 2.0 percent over last year, and then are forecast to rise 13.6 percent to 5.69 million in 2010. “A steady draw down of inventory will help home values to turn positive in 2010, but risks such as unemployment remain in the economy,” Yun said.
New-home sales are projected at 397,000 this year, recovering to 549,000 in 2010. Housing starts, including multifamily units, should total 564,000 units this year but grow to 752,000 in 2010.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably average 5.3 percent in the fourth quarter, rising gradually to 5.8 percent by the end of next year. NAR’s housing affordability index will set a record in 2009, averaging 30 percentage points higher than 2008. Affordability will decline from record highs next year but will remain at historically attractive levels for home buyers.
“We’ve seen a steady downtrend in housing inventory for well over a year and home prices appears to be in the early stages of stabilizing. With expansion of the tax credit to additional buyers through the middle of next year, and no major unforeseen events impacting the economy, home prices should rise between 3 and 5 percent in 2010, but with wide geographic differences,” Yun said.
He expects growth in the U.S. gross domestic product to be at a pace of 2.5 percent in the current quarter, with GDP up 2.8 percent in 2010.
The unemployment rate is close to peaking and is projected to ease to 9.5 percent by the end of next year.
“The size of the U.S. budget deficit is a concern going forward, and carries the risk of higher inflation. At this point, that risk appears to be restrained,” Yun said. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen contracting 0.4 percent this year, then rising 1.6 percent in 2010. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is estimated to grow 0.4 percent this year and 1.2 percent next year.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

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FHA Head Praises Realtor Role in Recovery

December 10, 2009

Realtors® are the face of the housing market, the focal point of information, involvement and inventory, and the Federal Housing Administration is committed to help them be successful, FHA Housing Commissioner Dave Stevens told more than 1,000 Realtors® at a gathering here today.
“You help to stabilize the community, and without homeownership, there can be no stability in communities,” Stevens said. “Together, we must never let overexuberance overtake the housing market again, and interrupt the housing market and the lives of untold millions of Americans. Our goal must be nothing less than to craft a solid, sustainable housing market, a market with a secure foundation for the future.”
Stevens said he and Shaun Donovan, secretary of the Housing and Urban Development, recognize that the National Association of Realtors has been at the forefront of efforts to address the housing crisis, and he has met with NAR on several occasions to consider their concerns. FHA has taken direct action on a number of those concerns.
Stevens announced that effective Monday, Nov. 16, FHA will no longer require a second appraisal on high-balance loans for properties in declining markets. “We did not find our previous policy to be particularly helpful and were very concerned about the additional burden on lenders and consumers,” Stevens said. He noted the policy change will bring industry alignment, streamline loan processing and reduce costs to consumers.

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How the New Homebuyer Tax Credit Works

November 9, 2009

 The extension and expansion of the homebuyers tax credit that passed Congress November 5 allows more first-time buyers to qualify and creates an entirely new credit for existing homeowners who buy a new home.

via How the New Homebuyer Tax Credit Works.


Federal Reserve Press Release

November 4, 2009

Federal Reserve Press Release

 

 

Release Date: November 4, 2009

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity has continued to pick up. Conditions in financial markets were roughly unchanged, on balance, over the intermeeting period. Activity in the housing sector has increased over recent months. Household spending appears to be expanding but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will support a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will continue to employ a wide range of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. The amount of agency debt purchases, while somewhat less than the previously announced maximum of $200 billion, is consistent with the recent path of purchases and reflects the limited availability of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee will gradually slow the pace of its purchases of both agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities and anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.


Vote on Homebuyer Tax Credit Measure Delayed Over TARP Issue

October 30, 2009

Oct. 29 8PM (Bloomberg) — The U.S. Senate won’t vote until next week at the earliest on proposals to extend both an $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers and unemployment benefits for the nation’s jobless.

Senate action was delayed by a Republican demand that a vote be allowed on an amendment to end the Treasury Department’s Troubled Asset Relief Program at the end of this year.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, balked at the demand by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican. Reid also took procedural steps to end debate and schedule Senate action on extending the homebuyer tax credit and the unemployment benefits.

Lawmakers announced plans earlier this week to attach the tax-credit proposal to a pending bill on the unemployment benefits. The $8,000 tax credit, enacted earlier this year as part of the $787 billion economic stimulus package, is set to expire at the end of November.

The lawmakers want to extend it until April 30. Their proposal would also expand it to allow higher-income Americans and some who already own homes to qualify for the break.

Homebuyers who have lived in their prior residences for at least five years may receive a $6,500 credit under the plan, said Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus. Also, couples earning as much as $225,000 and individuals as much as $125,000 would qualify for the extended break, Baucus said. That’s up from a $75,000 limit for individuals and $150,000 for couples.

‘Stabilize’ Market

“The success of the American economy is closely tied to the success of the housing market; by helping to stabilize the housing market, the homebuyer tax credit has helped to shore up the economy as it begins to recover,” said Baucus, a Montana Democrat. “This would enable an even greater number of potential homebuyers to take the credit.”

Lawmakers said they want to prevent home sales from slipping as the economy struggles to recover from the worst drop in home prices since the Great Depression.

More than 1.2 million borrowers have claimed $8.5 billion of the $13.6 billion set aside for the homebuyer tax credits this year, according to the Treasury Department. The Obama administration endorsed plans to extend the credit today, saying it helped stabilize the nation’s housing market.

The tax break “brought new families into the housing market and contributed to three consecutive months of rising home prices,” Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in a statement.

$800,000 Cap

The measure would require those receiving the tax break to remain in their new homes for three years and they would have to repay the credit if they don’t.

Those buying homes worth more than $800,000 wouldn’t be eligible for the credit, said Baucus. Lawmakers also said they won’t extend the break beyond the new April 30 deadline.

“The American people should understand this — and the affected industries — this is the last extension,” said Senator Johnny Isakson, a Georgia Republican who cosponsored the plan. “Tax credits like this only work by creating the sense of urgency to take advantage of them.”

Isakson estimated the new plan would cost $10.2 billion. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said the plan wouldn’t add to the government’s budget deficit because lawmakers plan to finance it by delaying a tax break for multinational companies scheduled to take effect next year.

The bill that would include the tax-credit plan calls for extending unemployment benefits by 14 weeks in all states, and by an additional six weeks in states with the highest jobless rates. That bill has been stalled for weeks because of an ongoing dispute between Reid and McConnell over amendments to the measure.

Dropped Demand

McConnell today dropped his demands for votes on amendments related to immigration and the community activist group ACORN. He held firm on his push for the TARP-related amendment.

The proposal would remove Geithner’s ability to unilaterally extend the TARP program beyond its Dec. 31 expiration date to October 2010.

“It seems to me there should be a better time to have this debate,” Reid said today.

Any legislation the Senate passed would have to be reconciled with a House-passed bill last month that didn’t include the tax-credit provisions and provides more limited unemployment benefits.

Reid said House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, a Maryland Democrat, assured him that “they will accept what we’ve talked about with first-time homebuyers.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Dawn Kopecki in Washington at dkopecki@bloomberg.com Brian Faler in Washington at bfaler@bloomberg.net


Senate Close to Deal Replacing Homebuyer Tax Credit (First Time and Move-up Buyers!)

October 27, 2009

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Senate leaders moved closer to an agreement on replacing an expiring $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers with a smaller one that expands access to more borrowers, two people familiar with the matter said.

The deal would reduce the size of the tax credit to 10 percent of the sale’s price, capped at $7,290, the people said. The credit would be available on home purchases that are under contract by April 30, and borrowers would have 60 days more to close the sale. The existing credit is due to end Nov. 30.

The new agreement, which is still being negotiated and may change, would expand the credit to so-called step-up borrowers who have lived in their current home for at least five years. The income eligibility for first-time homebuyers would remain the same at $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for couples. The income criteria for step-up buyers would be $125,000 for individuals and $250,000 for couples.

(more)


Credit Scores: What You Need to Know Now

September 9, 2009

Tighter Lending Makes Cracking the System Vital; Benefits of Paying on Time

Are you keeping score?

Credit scores have been getting a lot of attention lately, as lenders tighten credit standards and contend with new legislation that has, among other things, reigned in how credit-card issuers can raise rates.

Meanwhile, several firms, preying on our insecurities, are pushing credit scores and credit-score-tracking services for a monthly fee.

Credit Scores

For all the attention they generate, though, credit scores are largely misunderstood. For instance, your precise score matters only when you’re in need of new debt, like a home, auto or education loan or a new credit card, which should be a fairly rare occurrence.

You don’t have just one score, but many. Your FICO score, the one developed by Fair Isaac Corp. that runs from a low of 300 to a high of 850, will vary depending on which credit bureau is reporting it and the kind of lender that requested it.

So the score that costs you $15.95 at MyFico.com may not be the score your lender sees. Beyond that, the three credit bureaus— Equifax, Experian and TransUnion— sell their own proprietary scores.

Confused about what to believe?

Here are some common myths about credit scores:

My credit score is a good reflection of my financial smarts and good behavior.

Not really. Your score doesn’t reflect your income, employment history or your assets, which should be a part of your overall financial picture. It also doesn’t show whether you pay your rent or utilities on time. As a result, a credit score is less like a report card and more like an SAT score—your results on a particular date that seek to predict your future credit success or failure.

I pay my card off every month, so I must be a low credit risk.

True, your financial habits are excellent. But they won’t affect your score. That’s because the credit bureaus don’t have a clue whether you pay your bill in full or carry a balance on your cards each month. All they know is the amount you owed on your most recent statement.

Instead, the crucial fact is how much available credit you have used. Steve Ely, president of personal-information solutions at Equifax, says you should keep your credit use to less than half your credit limit to minimize the impact on your score.

Taking advantage of reward cards shouldn’t affect my creditworthiness.

Unfortunately, about 30% of your FICO score is based on “credit utilization,” a broad term that includes how much you’ve used of each credit limit, how much you’ve borrowed as a percentage of your total available credit and even how big the dollar balances actually are.

If you’re a rewards junkie like I am, charging groceries, charitable contributions and just about everything else to get points, you may be jeopardizing your score. Based on reports I paid for, my TransUnion score was 11 points lower than my Equifax score, apparently because of my vacation-enhanced balance, even though I used less than 10% of my available credit.

Luckily, there’s an easy solution: Cut back your credit-card use for two or three months before you plan to seek a car loan or mortgage so that your balances will be more modest.

Scored Straight

Credit scores, while crucial to one’s financial health, are widely misunderstood. Some oft-forgotten points to consider:

  • They don’t reflect your whole financial picture, but a snapshot of your debt at a point in time.
  • It doesn’t matter whether you carry a balance, but it does matter if you pay on time.
  • The score you buy isn’t necessarily the score lenders see.
  • You don’t need to apply for new credit for credit inquiries to show up on your report.

I was late on a payment, but the debt is now paid off. So I’m good, right?

Afraid not. The single most important factor in your score, accounting for 35% of the total, is whether you have paid your bills on time. One late payment will ding your score for up to a year, very late payments can hurt you for two or three years, and collections and bankruptcies can sting for up to seven years.

What counts as late? In theory, one day. But because credit-card companies know that people move, get sick or misplace their bills, they commonly wait to report your late payment to credit bureaus until about 30 days have passed, or you have missed two due dates. (You will likely be assessed a late fee right away, however.)

If you have missed a payment, pay it as soon as possible and consider calling and doing the honorable thing: groveling. Many companies will waive or reduce fees the first time a good customer makes a mistake, and they may even agree to withhold reporting the infraction to the credit bureau.

Information stays on my credit report for no more then seven years.

That’s largely true for bad news, including late payments. But good news hangs around—and pays dividends—a lot longer. My credit report reflects the 30-year history of the credit card I got back in college.

In addition, closed accounts in good standing will stay on your record for a decade, says Barry Paperno, FICO consumer-operations manager. Both old and closed accounts can help your score because the length of your credit history is another, if smaller, piece of the formula. Visa

Preserving your credit history is one reason that Kenneth Lin, CEO of Creditkarma.com, recommends that you don’t formally close an account but let the issuer close it for lack of activity. The longer the account stays open, he says, the more you’ll add to your credit history and the longer you’ll benefit from the additional available credit.

I haven’t gotten a loan in a while, which should boost the “new credit” part of my score.

You don’t have to get new credit to show a so-called hard inquiry on your credit report. If you have opened a new checking account, the bank may have checked your score. Last year, I bought a car and the dealer, unbeknownst to me, checked my credit. I never applied for a loan, but that one inquiry knocked 15 points off my Equifax score—and that’s typical.

For that reason, Curtis Arnold, founder of Cardratings.com, suggests you ask up front if a bank, insurer or car dealer plans to check your credit record. Luckily, shopping around for a car or education loan or mortgage counts only as one inquiry as long as you do it within a few weeks. Otherwise, multiple inquiries may knock your score back for a year.

That said, when you check your score, when your current card company keeps tabs on your credit or when someone pre-approves you for a credit-card—all so-called soft inquiries—your score won’t be affected.

The score I pay for or get for free is my real score.

Most free scores are not the FICO scores that lenders request. You can buy FICO scores from Equifax and TransUnion—but not Experian—on MyFico.com for $15.95 each, but even then, they may not be the exact score the lender actually sees. You can, however, see each of your three credit reports—which include all the activity that is used to determine your score, but not the score itself—for free once a year by going to AnnualCreditReport.com. Because your scores aren’t likely to vary by much, ongoing tracking services are usually unnecessary.

I should aspire to a score above 800.

Sadly, a score of 800 or more—the holy grail for “high achievers” on online FICO forums—won’t make you thinner, smarter, richer or more attractive to lenders or anyone else. True, every 20 points in your score can mean a slightly lower mortgage rate or better car loan, but only up to the mid-700s.

That means it’s worthwhile to take steps to improve a score in the 600s or low 700s, and in the high 700s, you’ll have plenty of room for score fluctuation. Beyond that, a higher score is meaningless.

By Karen Blumenthal familymoney@wsj.com

(More Credit Information)


Lotterman: Creating money from nothing

September 8, 2009

Tue, 09/08 @ 12:00AM

The recent news that the Federal Reserve made some $14 billion on sundry lending and securities purchases over the past two years is raising comments. It should not.

The Fed usually makes money by managing our nation’s money supply. So do central banks in other countries. Most reports also note that this accounting is incomplete and does not include returns on money the Fed committed to the bailouts of specific companies like Bear Stearns and AIG, which are likely to be losses.

Virtually all accounts, however, miss the central point that gains or losses by the Fed as a result of its actions to stabilize the economy in the financial market debacle of 2007-2009 are of only minor importance to the public that the Fed is supposed to serve. The key question is whether Fed actions prevented a more serious recession that would have cost the public enormous amounts in lower incomes and even greater declines in asset prices.

The fact that news media find much news in the Fed making minor operational profits exemplifies the widespread misunderstanding of the purpose and functioning of the central bank.

Central banks do a lot of things, but the function that makes any of them a central bank is that of creating and destroying money so that the nation’s money supply matches the needs of its economy. Indeed, the opening lines of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 describe it as a bill “to provide for an elastic currency.”

But central banks need concrete mechanisms to increase or decrease the money supply. They cannot just wave a wand over a fuming cauldron and say “Shazam!” The Fed uses two such mechanisms.

First, it makes loans to commercial banks that are short of cash because the legitimate credit needs of their communities exceed loanable deposits or because a bank has made bad loans that would otherwise bankrupt it if not for loans from the Fed. The money the Fed lends does not come from anywhere else. The Fed simply creates it, either as additional Federal Reserve notes or, most commonly, by simply adding to the balance in the recipient bank’s reserve account at the Fed.

This direct “discount window” lending to banks is what Congress had in mind when it established the Fed nearly a century ago and was the dominant policy tool for the first few decades of the central bank’s existence. When the Fed makes more such loans, it expands the money supply. When it cuts back and makes fewer new loans than old ones being paid off, it contracts the money supply. Loans usually are made only to banks but in “unusual and exigent circumstances,” the Fed may loan to virtually any business.

The Fed eventually discovered that it also could change the money supply by buying and selling government bonds. When it buys a bond, the Fed, in effect, writes a check on itself.

The Fed earns interest on its loans and bonds as would any other lender or investor. Since the Fed had some $800 billion of such loans and bonds on its books before the current crisis arose in 2007, it earns tens of billions of dollars per year even in normal times. From this income, it funds its operating expenses and pays the commercial banks that joined the Fed system a fixed 6 percent dividend on their stock in the Fed. The rest is simply turned over to the Treasury.

So while the Fed lending that is producing some Fed profits is unusual, the fact that it makes profits is not. Nor is the disposition of such profits any dark secret. All 12 district banks are audited each year, currently by Deloitte and Touche, and publish annual reports in paper and on the Internet.

The Fed also publishes its balance sheet weekly. This doesn’t allay the paranoia of assorted fanatics who still believe that the Fed is owned and controlled by some secret cabal. But probably no evidence or argument would sway these nuts anyway.

Economist Edward Lotterman teaches and writes in St. Paul, Minn. Write him at ed@edlotterman.com.


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